Do The Jets Have a Chance?

Heading into Week 15 of the NFL season, the headline matchup in the AFC East should be the game between the Bills and Browns, which could very likely decide the 6th and final playoff team in the AFC. Alas, a December matchup between two playoff hopefuls just doesn’t have the allure, drama and intrigue of a matchup between a team that has locked in one of the top two spots in the AFC and a team that has locked in one of the top draft picks in April’s draft. And to make matters worse for Jets fans, the pre-game chatter is not about who will win this game, but rather, by how much will the Patriots win?

With many outlets listing the Patriots as 24-to-27 point favorites, it is obvious that most football fans out there think the Patriots will win, and win big. Can you blame them? A quick look at the numbers (and please, only look quickly, staring at these numbers could induce nausea in even the most stout Jets fan) shows that the Patriots enjoy a statistical edge in just about every category in the game of football.

Total offense:
Patriots: #1 (425.0 yards per game)
Jets: #26 (296.0 yards per game)

Passing offense:
Patriots: #1 (311.3 yards per game)
Jets: #23 (192.6 yards per game)

Rushing offense:
Patriots: #14 (113.7 yards per game)
Jets: #19 (103.4 yards per game)

Scoring offense:
Patriots: #1 (38.7 points per game)
Jets: #24 (18.4 points per game)

Total defense:
Patriots: #4 (294.0 yards per game)
Jets: #28 (350.2 yards per game)

Passing defense:
Patriots: #6 (194.4 yards per game)
Jets: #11 (208.3 yards per game)

Rushing defense:
Patriots: #13 (99.6 yards per game)
Jets: #30 (141.9 yards per game)

Scoring defense:
Patriots: #4 (17.1 points per game)
Jets: #25 (24.2 points per game)

Looking at those raw numbers, its easy to see why some people expect a replay of the 1940 NFL Championship Game. And its pretty hard to argue against them, frankly. So, do the Jets have a chance? Well, this may be a stretch, but sometimes miracles happen. What do the Jets need to do to win on Sunday?

1. Do not turn the ball over.They need QB Kellen Clemens to play smart, error-free football and the RBs need to hold onto the ball. Any turnovers open the door for the Patriots offense to get hot and bury the Jets before the half.

2. Leon Washington needs to give the offense great field position, and maybe even a touchdown or two. Washington has shown that he is the best kick returner this side of Devin Hester, and on Sunday he needs to make some big plays on kick and punt returns.

3. Play a swarming, yet disciplined, defense. If the Jets are to have any shot whatsoever at winning, they will need to slow down the NFL’s top ranked offense. To do that, they will need to get pressure in Tom Brady’s face and keep the Patriots WRs from making the big plays. If the Jets D can confuse Brady and make him throw to his second, third or even fourth option, they could buy themselves enough time to get a sack or force an ill-timed throw into coverage. Its a tall order, for sure, but it can be done.

4. Thomas Jones needs to have a monster game. When the Jets traded for RB Thomas Jones this offseason, the plan was for him to be the workhorse on the Jets offense. Thus far this season he has not lived up to those expectations. But as we have seen the past few weeks, the Patriots defense can be run on. If Jones can carry the ball 25-30 times and help the Jets offense win the time of possession battle, it could keep the score low enough for the Jets to have a shot at making a play on special teams that leads to a win.

5. Get a little help from above. And no, I am not talking about divine intervention, I’m talking about the weather. Early forecasts are calling for a cold, windy, snowy day in Foxboro on Sunday. That type of weather could do more harm to the Patriots high-powered offense than any exotic coverage and blitz scheme could ever hope to do. If the weather dictates the action on the field, the Jets may actually be better equipped to handle it than the Patriots. Of course, the Patriots have shown before that they can win in the snow.

So while it appears the Patriots have every statistical edge heading into this weekend’s game, don’t forget that the game are not played on paper, but rather on the field and in the weather. And if everything comes together just right for the Jets on Sunday, we could be talking about one of the bigger upsets in recent sports history next Monday.